Peace in Ukraine – a roadmap

Preliminary Note

This roadmap draft is to be implemented in case Russia and Ukraine cannot find a solution in bilateral talks.

In any conflict or discord the first steps toward a solution tend to appear the most difficult. This solution proposal envisages six steps. Should bilateral talks between Russia and Ukraine prove unable to ensure peace and stability in the region, a second round of talks in Geneva („Geneva II“) may be instated. In this case the following road map may prove helpful.

Step 1

Russia, EU, USA and the Kiev interim regime agree soon to set at shortest possible notice a date for a second round of Geneva talks on the matter, „Geneva II“. The parties agree:

–       All decisions taken in these talks are to be completed with detailed description of steps, dates, controls and sanctions.

–       All parties agree to utmost restraint of any clandestine activities during the talks.

–       All parties agree how to represent in this new round of Geneva talks those parts of the population of Ukraine, who do not accept and/or did not take part in the recent presidential elections of May, 25 2014.

–       The Transnistria case and any other disputed cases will have to be treated in separate parallel talks. Any blocking or other measures aggravating the present situation are to be suspended immediately and as long as the talks are under way.

Step 2

–       Ukraine’s interim government disarms and sustainably dissolves within two weeks after setting the date of the Geneva II round of talks all private armed groups, regardless of their involvement in protests or ties of whatever kind and nature to official armed forces.

–       Members of these irregular forces under suspicion of capital crimes, especially murder, are to be imprisoned to await trial.

–       “People’s Defense” armed forces implement utmost restraint in all activities – such as to justify and ease consensus on their later dissolution (as in Step 5).

Step 3

–       All armed foreign mercenary forces are to leave Ukraine.

–       All concerned nations withdraw all personnel with connection to armed forces, except for officially acknowledged diplomatic staff (attaché’s office).

–       All multi-national sanctions against Russia are to cease.

Step 4

–       OSCE and UN surveillance personnel are to be dislocated throughout the country, at a strength of no less than 2’000 – with the exception of the Crimea territory.

–       All fighting activities between armed forces in Ukraine are to cease immediately and completely. Violations of this are to be heavily sanctioned.

Step 5 – targeted result within 72 hours of completion of Step 4:

–       Within 10 days hours of completion of Step 4, the Kiev interim government is to

o   withdraw all officially armed forces still in place from all those areas, which are under the command of “people’s defense forces”

o   declare once and for all, to never reinstate them without permission from the UN security council.

–       At the same time all “People’s Defense Forces” are to be withdrawn and sustainably dissolved.

–       Public security is guaranteed by Ukrainian police under surveillance by OSCE/UN personnel.

–       All violations of this roadmap by armed groups of whatever denomination or background are to be handled by OSCE/UN and reinforcement of their forces.

Step 6

Geneva II talks are to be finalized in a joint written treaty no later than September 1, 2014 – and implementation of all stipulations of that treaty are to be safeguarded by surveillance and sanctions.

Important parts of that treaty are:

–       The population of Crimea has the right to determine its own future. Through the overwhelming majority of the referendum its result will be recognized by all parties. However, Russia’s interference in the staging of this referendum constitutes gross interference into other countries affairs – and therefore is being sanctioned in this treaty in the way of negotiated Russian debt reduction for Ukraine.

–       Russia accepts the result of the coup d’état of February 21, 2014 – but there will have to be fair and free parliamentary elections by end of 2014.

–       Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Belarus will neither be associated in any way with EU and/or NATO (partnership, expectancy, association etc.): a freeze on the status quo.

–       Consensual solutions are to be presented to

o   the Transnistria question

o   the missile shield question

o   Ukraine’s gas debt question

o   Complete stop of any third party interference in Russian bilateral gas deals

o   Complete stop of any obstruction of Russian gas delivery

–       Should Ukraine ever again disturb Russian gas deliveries through its territory, OSCE will ensure tough sanctions

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RIA-Novosti report on Regional Peace Roadmap for Ukraine, 28 May 2014

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140528/190195753/REVIEW-Five-Roadmaps-for-Solving-Ukrainian-Crisis.html

RIA-Novosti interview with DM chair person Christoph Hörstel, 26 May 2014

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140526/190163608/OPINION-Poroshenkos-Success-Depends-on-Western-Decisions.html